Michael Burry’s 12 Failed Bets On Market Crashes Over The Past 8 Years

However, there are other astute investors who disagree with Burry, and ultimately, retail investors are very unlikely to correctly time the market. Historical data show that the market has consistently generated solid long-term returns and that investing in stocks is less risky when held for the long term. And so the problem is, in the United States, I think when the market goes down, it’s not like in 2000, where there was this other bunch of stocks that were being ignored, and they’ll come up even if the Nasdaq crashes. Active investing refers to the process of conducting thorough research and frequently buying and selling stocks to outperform the market and generate alpha, as there are inefficiencies to capitalize on. Michael Burry became one of the few investors to make bets against the housing market before it collapsed during the Great Recession. Other market whizzes, including the hedge fund manager David Einhorn and the "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel, have called out epic levels of speculation among investors and cautioned that they’re marching toward disaster.

Michael Burry’s Warning For The 2025 Stock Market Crash

Scion Capital’s most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission revealed a stunning portfolio allocation that has caught the attention of market observers worldwide. He says AI and tech stock valuations are dangerously inflated.

For Bitcoin to reach Burry’s $50,000 target, it would need to fall an additional 25% from current levels. The chart reveals a descending price channel that has been driving the cryptocurrency lower since its all-time high near $126,000. Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,274, down 8.15% in the last 24 hours. Burry posted on X a comparative chart with the simple message “$BTC Patterns,” where he draws structural similarities between the current drop—from $126,000 to $70,000—and the previous brutal plunge that took Bitcoin from $35,000 to below $20,000.

Burry advocated for small-cap value stocks as a hedge, underweighted in these funds. In the first month of 2017, Burry emerged from relative silence with a stark email to investors at his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. Michael Burry, the investor immortalized in the film The Big Short for his correct predictive wager against the housing market leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, has built a reputation as a contrarian genius. Writing in his Substack, Burry pointed towards a recent and steep drop in the value of gold and silver, suggesting that investors were selling up in those more reliable areas due to collapsing cryptocurrency prices.

• The value of the crypto market now stands at nearly $2.5 trillion, down from its over $4 trillion valuation in October.
• Nvidia’s stock price has multiplied several times over as demand for its graphics processing units has exploded among companies building AI systems.
• Burry advocated for small-cap value stocks as a hedge, underweighted in these funds.
• Other market whizzes, including the hedge fund manager David Einhorn and the "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel, have called out epic levels of speculation among investors and cautioned that they’re marching toward disaster.

March 2021: Bitcoin’s Speculative Bubble Confirmed

This isn’t a hedge or a minor contrarian position—this is a concentrated bet that reflects deep conviction about future market direction. Combined, these two positions represent about $1.1 billion in bearish bets, accounting for approximately 80 percent of Scion Capital’s entire portfolio. Burry purchased put options on one million Nvidia shares, valued at approximately $186.6 million, and put options on five million Palantir shares, worth roughly $912.1 million. The filing disclosed that Burry has taken substantial put option positions on Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, two companies at the forefront of the artificial intelligence revolution.

Michael Burry’s Latest Predictions: $16 Bn Short, Long Positions Revealed

• The chart reveals a descending price channel that has been driving the cryptocurrency lower since its all-time high near $126,000.
• Timing the market remains a risky strategy.
• Writing in his Substack, Burry pointed towards a recent and steep drop in the value of gold and silver, suggesting that investors were selling up in those more reliable areas due to collapsing cryptocurrency prices.
• Whether this proves to be another prescient call that cements his legacy or another recent misstep from a legendary investor remains to be seen.
• His warning captured real risks—such as margin debt at record levels—but it arrived as vaccines were being rolled out.

Exact losses remain undisclosed, but filings suggest heavy writedowns, capping a streak where Burry’s crash calls repeatedly failed and were caught on the wrong side of a bull market repeatedly. His bet overlooked crypto’s resilience as an inflation hedge in the eyes of investors. Burry’s fund shifted defensively, but the market shrugged off his gloom, climbing another 6% in February and entering a bull phase that would last for years. Burry eventually exited the trade quietly, but the episode underscored his frustration with a market ignoring fundamentals like negative free cash flow and production bottlenecks. In a lengthy email interview with Bloomberg, he likened the trillions flowing into index funds and exchange-traded funds to the collateralized debt obligations that fueled the housing bubble. This was no vague hunch; Burry tied it to overleveraged debt markets and rising protectionism, echoing the subprime warnings that had made him famous.

The Stock Markets Ultimate Line In The Sand

• On a recent podcast, the cofounder and long-term investment strategist of the asset manager GMO diagnosed the biggest "super bubble" in US history, adding that stocks would have to crash by 50% to trade at historical norms.
• Michael Burry, the investor immortalized in the film The Big Short for his correct predictive wager against the housing market leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, has built a reputation as a contrarian genius.
• Burry’s fund shifted defensively, but the market shrugged off his gloom, climbing another 6% in February and entering a bull phase that would last for years.
• Citing data from Polymarket, a prediction platform, the report adds that there is an 82% chance that Bitcoin will fall to $65,000 in 2026.
• Yet, in the years following that triumph, Burry’s public pronouncements have often veered into a pattern of repeated warnings about impending doom—warnings that have yet to materialize in the way he anticipated.
• Burry’s Scion Asset Management discloses massive put options against QQQ and SPY in SEC filing.

Over the past eight years, from early 2017 to late 2023, Burry issued at least a dozen high-profile predictions and trades betting on market collapses, only to watch equities climb higher, assets rally, and his timelines evaporate. US hedge fund manager Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 US housing collapse, has now sounded an alarm about Bitcoin. Burry appears to be betting on a major market downturn, while also taking long positions in some companies, as revealed by his latest SEC filing.

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Technical indicators show a bearish trend firmly established, with multiple short signals activated across different timeframes. Beyond that, an additional drop toward $50,000 would not only devastate miners—many operate with tight margins that wouldn’t survive those prices—but would trigger cascading effects that could contaminate other markets. Burry himself has admitted to errors, such as the 2023 “Sell,” and pivoted to new fights, including AI shorts in Palantir and Nvidia in 2025, using put options. Yet, each time, markets defied his script, powered by innovation, liquidity, and human optimism.

• “This will not happen again,” he implied in deleted posts, warning of repercussions for retail traders.
• He had tweeted months earlier that Tesla’s reliance on regulatory credits masked underlying weaknesses, calling its market cap—then over $500 billion—”ridiculous” and unsustainable.
• Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and other market commentators have for years been warning that stocks will crash and the economy will crater.
• With approximately $1.1 billion bet against two of the market’s most prominent artificial intelligence stocks, Burry appears to be sounding the alarm on what he may view as the next major market bubble.
• In a 2 February Substack post, Burry said that the cryptocurrency’s decline may have compelled the institutional investors and corporate treasurers to unload positions in other assets to cover losses.

Investors who own individual stocks may also want to look carefully at valuations, as Burry actually suggested. However, if you are concerned, as Burry suggests, that passive investing has become a newer issue that the market may not be ready for, there are certain strategies one can take. Burry is clearly one of the best investors in the game. Just like the market has gone up and reached extremely high valuations, sometimes without any explanation, that effect could be just as penalizing when the market is going down. Burry is not the only fund manager to raise this concern, and many of even the best managers say that value investing might be dead, due to this very reason. Now, I think the whole thing is just going to come down, and it will be very hard to be long stocks in the United States and protect yourself.

“This will not happen again,” he implied in deleted posts, warning of repercussions for retail traders. As the GameStop mania gripped markets in late January 2021, Burry, who had built a massive long position in the retailer back in 2019, took a contrarian turn. Yet Tesla reached an all-time high above $1,200, split-adjusted, up another 50% from its December close. Burry’s position, now public knowledge, faced intense scrutiny, with short sellers collectively losing billions. At the time, Tesla shares were still doubling every few months, propelled by inclusion in the S&P 500 and record deliveries. “My last Big Short got bigger and bigger and BIGGER too,” he posted, drawing parallels to his housing bet while insisting the EV maker’s valuation would “implode soon.”

Risk-reward Calculus: Hedge Now Or Buy The Dip?

Burry has closed his hedge fund and smartytrade reviews taken bearish positions personally. Cryptocurrency and investing involve significant risk, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and always do your own research or seek professional advice.Content is intended for adults only. He is fascinated by trading and market analysis.